Mia Love leads by just 416 votes in the 4th District race. All that's left to be counted are 34,000 provisional votes. Those are votes where people show up to vote on election day, perhaps unregistered or having just moved. The voters are allowed to vote but then those ballots are held aside until the voter can be verified. Between 85-90% of the votes are eventually allowed.
Of the 34,000 outstanding votes from SLCounty and UTCounty, it is not known exactly how many of the provisionals are from the 4th District as both counties have more than one Congressional District, but, we do know that the vast majority of the outstanding votes are from SLCounty.
Up to now, Love has been getting about 75 percent of the Utah County vote and McAdams about 53 percent of the SLCounty votes. The twist is that only 15% of Utah County is in the 4th District. Love needs to win big in Utah County and avoid a landslide in SLCounty.
The election comes down to a few thousand ‘provisional’ voters. Here is where Ben wins the election. I believe you can throw away the previous vote patterns for District 4. My guess is the provisionals are not representative of the District. in SLCounty, I suspect that the provisionals are overwhelmingly millennials. Young, renting, new voters, motivated by Prop 2’s medical cannabis. They should go to Ben in the 60-65% range.
When those votes are counted, presto, Congressman Ben McAdams goes to Washington.
I will be posting at five o’clock with the results! Senator Jim Dabakis Facebook or @JimDabakis on twitter. Stay tuned.